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| Topic Review (Newest First) |
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| Stoner |
quote:
Originally posted by misty1
i believe brad will one day win a brier but i also think it has to happen within the next 5 years or so.kevin koe won his first brier at the age of 35 but its pretty rare for anyone to win their first national championship as skip that long into their careers.i think mcewen has a similar time crunch. im not saying that they cant win a brier late into their careers but when is the last time we have seen someone win a national championship for the first time as a skip after or at the age of 40.
in addition we have young teams coming uo getting better all the time that will stand in their way like bottcher, kean, epping, virtue, calvert, dunstone, jacobs and casey.
you also have to consider the mental side of things. i think thats been something holding both brad and mike back. its no secret ghat once it gets down to crunch time in manitoba mike brain freezes and plays poorly.
I agree with this, it's rare when that happens. |
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| Stoner |
quote:
Originally posted by Manitoba Legend
Difference is that Gushue is a Brier/Slam quality curler who is perennially auto-berthed for Brier participation. McEwen is a Brier/Slam quality curler but he always manages to find impediments to brier participation (or they find him)
Both guys are mid-30s - - - - if they dedicate themselves to curling only they might have 5 to 10 more years left to top skip. McEwen is probably buoyed by how weak Carruthers was on the ice in Calgary - might only have Reid and a couple other teams to derail him next season. (one of them no doubt will be Calvert)
I was thinking Team McEwen might take memberships at the Kenora C.c. but Pat Simmons derailed that plan. If Jacobs slithers by Simmons, N. Ontario is one Mike Jakubo team away from McEwen coming out of that jurisdiction. Actually, when Ken Watson retired from curling in 1949 his brother Grant moved to Northern Ontario and repped them on a couple occasions in the early 1950s, actually showing well in at least one Brier. But now there's no way McEwen goes to Kenora and ends up being confronted by Jacobs at their playdowns. Better to stay in Manitoba and deal with the likes of Reid, Sean Grassie, Lyburns, Steve Irwin, Kelley Robertson and Calvert.
Actually, while Chelsea Carey is sniffing for opportunities Northern Ontario might be her best bet; especially if she can't re-unite her old warhorses from a couple years ago. Only big obstacle there is Tracy Horgan but I suspect Carey doesn't hold Horgan in that high a regard.
Weird post.
I somehow don't think Carey went to Alberta for a better chance at making the TOH, if you want to make it there, Alberta is not the place to be right now, too many great teams. |
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| milobloom |
quote:
Originally posted by johnnysmoke
It's simplistic to say that subtle flaws in strategy are cause of winning or losing at this level.
I agree, perhaps you misunderstood my intention. Flaws in strategy will lower the chance of winning, but teams can (and often) win in spite of poor decisions. Gushue could have had 3 Briers by now (2007, 2011 and 2015), and strategy is not the sole or even predominant reason he won none of them.
However, I believe it is an area that Brad can improve, and it doesn't take any physical effort to do so. In my opinion,any arguement that his team lacks the physical skills is dead wrong.
There are 4 areas of curling that I mention in my book and in an article from way back
http://curlwithmath.blogspot.ca/200...r-of-rings.html
I believe Gushue's teams may have been a notch below the top tier in the past on 1 and 2 (physical and mental skills), but not today (my main point). However, they appear at times to not be consistently at their full potential on items 3 and 4 (strategy and psychology). This isn't the reason they may not win a particular Brier , but it will keep them from becoming the best team in the world.
I don't actually feel yet that any team (including Jacobs) is at their full potential for items 3 and 4. Ferbey was in the early 2000s, Martin had it in the back half of the decade and Howard certainly over the years also. Note that all of these skips reached that peak when they were in the later part of their career, and knew how to build and nuture a winning team. Some of it is math/strategy, but a lot of it is psychological and hard to measure, the effort away from the game that does not include the sport at all. For example, Marcel Rocque has had a great influence on the Chinese program simply by having teams relate to each other socially, and putting less focus on physical aspects of the game.
The team that reaches their peak of strategic and psychological focus by December of 2017 will have the best chance (but stil no guarantee) of heading to the Olympics as Team Canada. |
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| johnnysmoke |
A curling championship or a curling game can have an infinite amount of combinations and permutations of shot outcomes that can lead to a win, a loss, a blowout, or a decision that comes down to the last rock. A hit and flop that rolls 12 inches may be perfect, but if it rolls 16 inches it's disastrous and gives the opposition an out, and completely turns around an end.
A pick on a last rock could turn an 8 ender into a steal of one. Such is the game.
IBM's Big Blue can beat the best chessmaster in the world, but try winning a curling game. Fat chance.
This is what makes curling such a fascinating and exciting game and that's why we watch.
It's simplistic to say that subtle flaws in strategy are cause of winning or losing at this level.
Sure, the best teams usually win, but sometimes one heavy draw by a foot determines Dacey wins the Brier, Ferbey loses, Pål Trulsen wins Gold, Kevin Martin Silver.
I look forward to the year that all of the stars align and Gushue and team win the Brier. Also the year when team Mike McEwen get out of Manitoba and win one as well. |
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| misty1 |
quote:
Originally posted by milobloom
Gushue won 2 Grand Slams this year and has won 3 total (Jacobs has zero.).
Part of his role is to develop his team and cultivate a winning squad, something Ferbey, Martin, Stoughton and others have all done in the past. It is too simplistic to say that Gushue doesn't have the horses, he is also part of getting the most ability out of those horses. He and Mark won an Olympic gold before their primes and they have a front end with a juniors pedigree to match or exceed anyone else. It's difficult to argue that they don't have the physical ability to win a Brier.
Over the years I have seen subtle flaws in Brad's strategy (some recent I'm disecting here http://curlwithmath.blogspot.ca/201...er-weekend.html. Poor strategy decisions can make small differences and though they will not create a loss (teams win often despite poor decisions), but slightly lower his chances each time out.
Brad (similar to Mike McEwen after Manitoba final) was shaken up after his loss at this years Brier, and understandably so. He had the team to win it all and they didn't. I see it part execution and part strategy and part luck, but I don't believe it's an issue of ability at this stage.
Like McEwen with the Manitoba Provincial, everyone expects Brad will win the Brier one day. But the longer it goes without a victory, the more it will weigh on him.
Expectation is one of the toughest challenges in sport. Perhaps with Olympic gold the bar was set too high too soon.
i believe brad will one day win a brier but i also think it has to happen within the next 5 years or so.kevin koe won his first brier at the age of 35 but its pretty rare for anyone to win their first national championship as skip that long into their careers.i think mcewen has a similar time crunch. im not saying that they cant win a brier late into their careers but when is the last time we have seen someone win a national championship for the first time as a skip after or at the age of 40.
in addition we have young teams coming uo getting better all the time that will stand in their way like bottcher, kean, epping, virtue, calvert, dunstone, jacobs and casey.
you also have to consider the mental side of things. i think thats been something holding both brad and mike back. its no secret ghat once it gets down to crunch time in manitoba mike brain freezes and plays poorly. |
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| milobloom |
Gushue won 2 Grand Slams this year and has won 3 total (Jacobs has zero.).
Part of his role is to develop his team and cultivate a winning squad, something Ferbey, Martin, Stoughton and others have all done in the past. It is too simplistic to say that Gushue doesn't have the horses, he is also part of getting the most ability out of those horses. He and Mark won an Olympic gold before their primes and they have a front end with a juniors pedigree to match or exceed anyone else. It's difficult to argue that they don't have the physical ability to win a Brier.
Over the years I have seen subtle flaws in Brad's strategy (some recent I'm disecting here http://curlwithmath.blogspot.ca/201...er-weekend.html. Poor strategy decisions can make small differences and though they will not create a loss (teams win often despite poor decisions), but slightly lower his chances each time out.
Brad (similar to Mike McEwen after Manitoba final) was shaken up after his loss at this years Brier, and understandably so. He had the team to win it all and they didn't. I see it part execution and part strategy and part luck, but I don't believe it's an issue of ability at this stage.
Like McEwen with the Manitoba Provincial, everyone expects Brad will win the Brier one day. But the longer it goes without a victory, the more it will weigh on him.
Expectation is one of the toughest challenges in sport. Perhaps with Olympic gold the bar was set too high too soon. |
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| Guest |
quote:
Originally posted by Ajay
reread opening post....
reread third post |
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| Ajay |
reread opening post.... |
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| dbsdbs |
To this viewer from afar, Gushue looks like the best curler in Canada, just has not had enough of a supporting cast to win more often. |
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| albetts |
I hope Brad does well. He's tried this so many times before and has come up short. With Nichols back in the house I want to see something positive. Good luck Team NL. Would love to see you in the final. |
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| weldit |
Gushue (decreed flash in the pan by none other than Earle Morris in 2007) just handed JohhnyMo his first loss of the 2015 Brier to start with 2 and 0 record. Some flash!
Congrats to team Gushue and here's hoping you go all the way! |
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