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bearbells
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Oct 2011
Location:
Posts: 27 |
Stats
Will you explain the scoring that I see on the stats. What are Points, Diff/5 and Sweep/10 and how is it determined?
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04-18-12 04:57PM |
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SPMFromPCC
Swing Artist
Registered: Jun 2007
Location:
Posts: 440 |
As someone who's been trained on Gerry's stats program and used it a bunch during the US Nationals, I'll share what happens with this.
Points - This is a score, from 0 to 5, that indicates how well the called shot was executed. 5 is perfect, 0 is a complete miss or totally unacceptable result, etc. Bear in mind that whether the called shot was the "correct" call doesn't matter; it's strictly how well the shot was executed as the skip called it.
Diff/5 - This tells what the average difficulty of a player's shots were, on a scale of 1 to 5. We calculate this by first choosing a base shot type (draw, guard, freeze, hit, peel, etc) and then selecting any number of a series of modifiers that make the shot more difficult to execute precisely (double, triple, runback, through port, around guard, in-off, cross-house, etc). There's also a generic "difficult" modifier used in special circumstances to increase the scored difficulty of a particular shot (for example, a runback that's longer than four feet). Leads often have the lowest degree of difficulty because thier shots are relatively simple, where seconds and thirds tend to have the highest degree of difficulty.
Sweep/10 - This tells how much a player's stones were swept over the course of a game, on a scale of 0 to 10. For every shot we can select zero (not swept at all, or cleaned only), one (swept a little bit, at most a third of the way or just to finish the rock), two (swept roughly between 1/3 and 2/3 of the way), or three (swept most of the way, or the entire way).
I think that covers it. Any questions, just ask.
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04-19-12 07:19PM |
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So how are all these three things combined to end up with the shooting percentage? It does not seem to be calculated as total points divided by total shots (x 5 points). Must be some secret formula?
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04-20-12 11:35AM |
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SPMFromPCC
Swing Artist
Registered: Jun 2007
Location:
Posts: 440 |
I don't know the exact formula used. Only Gerry would have that info.
I will say that the sweeping statistic has nothing to do with shooting percentages. It's merely a reference, and possibly useful to coaches to help identify if a player is struggling with a particular type of shot. For example: If a player has low percentages on their in-turn hits (we select which turn was played on every shot as well, clockwise or counter-clockwise) and a very high sweeping number, that means that their in-turn hits were swept quite a lot and missed a lot. That may mean they were narrow with that shot most of the time. There's something to work on.
The difficulty factor influences percentages to some extent, in that a player with X number of points and a difficulty factor of 1.6 will have a lower percentage than a player with X points and a diff factor of 2.2. Again, I don't know how exactly the numbers are calculated. We just input all the stuff I talked about before, it crunches the numbers, and comes back with a percentage. The process between input and output is something I know nothing about.
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04-20-12 10:26PM |
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The degree of difficulty factor and how it is applied is the big question about this scoring system. Hard to be entirely enamoured with a system where a score of more than 100% is possible, which I think is possible with the system being used at the Player's Championship.
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04-21-12 05:46PM |
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livelysue
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Apr 2012
Location: PEI
Posts: 21 |
I really enjoyed doing the stats at the Players Championship in Summerside. I am a number cruncher and I have tried to work out the percentages with the difficulty factor but I can't get it exactly correct. I would love to know the calculation.
Last edited by livelysue on 04-22-12 at 10:26PM
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04-22-12 10:24PM |
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Applying a "degree of difficulty" factor to the shooting percentages makes sense to a certain degree. But it also opens up a lot more room for scoring error ... the scorer has to evaluate the difficulty of the shot as well as the outcome. Better to keep things as simple as possible.
Actually, I didn't mind the old 4-point scoring system (without a degree of difficulty) as currently used at the Brier and Scotties. What seems to be sometimes lacking is good judgement (by the scorers) about what the score for a shot should be. Scoring seems far to soft as applied at most events and the percentages are often higher than they out to be,IMO.
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04-23-12 08:44AM |
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Gerry
CZ Founder
Registered: Sep 2002
Location: London, Ontario
Posts: 4002 |
Thanks for the great comments!
Degree of Difficulty is calculated based on the description of the shot. Scorers tag modifiers which add up to create a degree of difficulty. Runback, Around Guard, Double, Triple, etc. The more modifiers, the higher degree of difficulty.
The modifiers each have a standardized degree of difficulty built into them, and we have a difficult modifier used when the shot is more then a typical shot. It's not an exact science, but it still improves upon the shooting percentages and helps to tell a better story about the game.
We also score out of 5, so it also allows for some more options, as taking a mark off a shot in the 4-point system can be such a harsh penalty (75%). With the 5 point system, we instruct the scores to mark more harshly, that to get a 5, it has to be perfect and all components of the shot be made. 4 out of 5 with a degree of difficulty can still be an 80-90% shot based on degree of difficulty, so mark the shots accordingly.
A player with a low shooting percentage tends to raise the degree of difficulty for the players shooting after them.
Some comments about scores being too high, though I think there's a few differences. Remember this weekend we had the 8 best Men's and 8 best Women's teams this season in attendance, and their numbers will be strong. The other thing we see sometimes is we get some higher highs, as players making most of their shots will score a little higher with the degree of difficulty, though we do also tend to get some lower lows, as we do try to be more strict on the marking.
We've got a standardized scoring template we train the scorers, which outlines how we would mark 8 different basic shots.
The overall numbers from the Players' Championship fall in line with what I would expect from an event of this calibre:
MENS STATISTICS
TEAM PCT
Ontario (Howard, G) 89
Alberta (Martin, K) 88.4
Manitoba (McEwen, M) 85.8
Alberta (Koe, K) 84.5
Ontario (Epping, J) 83.1
Newfoundland / Labrador (Gushue, B) 82.7
Manitoba (Stoughton, J) 82.1
Sweden (Edin, N) 80.4
Cumulative Stats Leaders By Position
FOURTH PCT
Brad Gushue (Gushue) 86.5
Glenn Howard (Howard) 85.6
Mike McEwen (McEwen) 84.4
John Epping (Epping) 83.7
Kevin Martin (Martin) 82.3
Kevin Koe (Koe) 81.9
Jeff Stoughton (Stoughton) 81.6
Sebastian Kraupp (Edin) 77.5
THIRD PCT
John Morris (Martin) 90.7
Wayne Middaugh (Howard) 85.8
Pat Simmons (Koe) 84.9
B.J. Neufeld (McEwen) 83.5
Scott Bailey (Epping) 83
Jon Mead (Stoughton) 80.6
Adam Casey (Gushue) 79.7
James Grattan (Edin) 74.3
SECOND PCT
Brent Laing (Howard) 91.1
Marc Kennedy (Martin) 88.9
Carter Rycroft (Koe) 86.3
Matt Wozniak (McEwen) 84.5
Fredrik Lindberg (Edin) 82.6
Scott Howard (Epping) 82.4
Reid Carruthers (Stoughton) 82.4
Brett Gallant (Gushue) 79.5
LEAD PCT
Craig Savill (Howard) 93.5
Ben Hebert (Martin) 91.5
Denni Neufeld (McEwen) 90.6
Viktor Kjall (Edin) 87
Geoff Walker (Gushue) 85.3
Nolan Thiessen (Koe) 85.1
Mark Nichols (Stoughton) 83.6
David Mathers (Epping) 83.1
WOMENS STATISTICS
Cumulative Stats Leaders By TEAM
TEAM PCT
Alberta (Nedohin, H) 81.9
Manitoba (Jones, J) 81.8
Ontario (Middaugh, S) 81.4
Saskatchewan (Lawton, S) 80.4
Manitoba (Carey, C) 79.6
Manitoba (Overton-Clapham, C) 78.6
Scotland (Muirhead, E) 78.2
Switzerland (Tirinzoni, S) 77.1
Cumulative Stats Leaders By Position
FOURTH PCT
Stefanie Lawton (Lawton) 83.8
Heather Nedohin (Nedohin) 82.6
Sherry Middaugh (Middaugh) 81.5
Jennifer Jones (Jones) 80.3
Cathy Overton-Clapham (Overton-Clapham) 78
Silvana Tirinzoni (Tirinzoni) 75.2
Chelsea Carey (Carey) 74.7
Eve Muirhead (Muirhead) 70.1
THIRD PCT
Beth Iskiw (Nedohin) 80.9
Jo-Ann Rizzo (Middaugh) 80.2
Kaitlyn Lawes (Jones) 79.7
Sherry Anderson (Lawton) 79.4
Kristy McDonald (Carey) 77.6
Jenna Loder (Overton-Clapham) 75.5
Anna Sloan (Muirhead) 75.5
Irene Schori (Tirinzoni) 72.8
SECOND PCT
Kristen Foster (Carey) 83.5
Jill Officer (Jones) 82.5
Vicki Adams (Muirhead) 80.9
Jessica Mair (Nedohin) 80.8
Lee Merklinger (Middaugh) 79.3
Ashley Howard (Overton-Clapham) 79.1
Sherri Singler (Lawton) 78.4
Esther Neuenschwander (Tirinzoni) 78.2
LEAD PCT
Claire Hamilton (Muirhead) 86.4
Dawn Askin (Jones) 84.8
Leigh Armstrong (Middaugh) 84.6
Laine Peters (Nedohin) 83.4
Lindsay Titheridge (Carey) 82.6
Sandra Gantenbein (Tirinzoni) 82.1
Breanne Meakin (Overton-Clapham) 81.7
Marliese Kasner (Lawton) 80.1
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04-23-12 11:48AM |
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livelysue
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Apr 2012
Location: PEI
Posts: 21 |
Thanks Gerry for the explanation. In the Epping/Howard final- John Epping had 67 points out of 80 which gives him a 83.75% based on shooting alone with a difficulty of 1.92 this brings it up to 87%. I would like to now the math involved that brings it to 87%. If you take 67 + 1.92 you would get 68.92/80 which gives 86.15% but I know that this is not quite right. As I said previously I am a numbers cruncher and really want to understand this completely.
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04-23-12 01:36PM |
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Gerry
CZ Founder
Registered: Sep 2002
Location: London, Ontario
Posts: 4002 |
Degree of Difficulty is calculated on a shot by shot basis. So the total degree of difficulty is not what is calculated by the points. You can have a high degree of difficulty, but if you totally miss the shot, you still get a 0.
It just shows an overall degree of difficulty to show you how tough a player's shot were over the game.
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04-23-12 06:36PM |
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