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Nine Ender
Swing Artist
Registered: Feb 2009
Location:
Posts: 338 |
quote: Originally posted by Frykenstein
Not interested in your reality/opinion, Homer. Look at the numbers.
Find ten Canadian men's teams with a winning % well above .500 vs. Top 50 teams, because that's who generally medals at Worlds or the Olympics.
Yes, flukes happen. But Retornaz, who played very well vs. the Top 50 this season--better than nearly all the Canadian men's teams on your Top 15 list--isn't one.
I just looked at the Players and Scott Howard beat them. Kind of proves my point. All the stats you keep bringing up are meaningless. Many Cdn teams aren't on tour especially during Covid but some are competitive with Team Italy. I'm starting to think you've never competed I've played enough to evaluate quality on the ice.
Last edited by Nine Ender on 04-16-22 at 09:40PM
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04-16-22 09:35PM |
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IN-OFF-FOR-2
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Mar 2013
Location:
Posts: 1875 |
quote: Originally posted by Nine Ender
I just looked at the Players and Scott Howard beat them. Kind of proves my point. All the stats you keep bringing up are meaningless. Many Cdn teams aren't on tour especially during Covid but they are competitve with Team Italy.
FYI Retornaz played in the Stu sells Halifax last November leading up to Europeans to get some ice time. They made the 1/4 finals but lost. Good team but in a tier 2 type spiel with a few other euro teams there, came up short. The locals were better. Check the scores.
PS they were great guys almost semi celebrities with the limited local fans. Embraced the locals. Many fans routing for them since.
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04-16-22 09:48PM |
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Nine Ender
Swing Artist
Registered: Feb 2009
Location:
Posts: 338 |
quote: Originally posted by Prawnpuller
It is very clear that the 3 top Mens teams on the planet are Edin , Gushue and Mouat. After that you could pick the next 30 top teams from any country ( would be dominated by Canadien teams) ) in the world and if you put them into a playoff there would be a different winner every event. That’s my humble opinion and I’m sticking to it😬
Basically but you could throw a few more Cdn teams on that elite tier prior to break up ( Koe, Jacobs, McEwan, maybe Bottcher ). The other poster has recency bias thinking concerning Team Italy. The point though is many Cdn teams would be medal contenders if they somehow won the Brier. Team Italy and others just show up and play.
Last edited by Nine Ender on 04-16-22 at 09:57PM
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04-16-22 09:54PM |
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prairie guy
Swing Artist
Registered: Jan 2011
Location: Southern Sask.
Posts: 364 |
quote: Originally posted by Prawnpuller
It is very clear that the 3 top Mens teams on the planet are Edin , Gushue and Mouat. After that you could pick the next 30 top teams from any country ( would be dominated by Canadien teams) ) in the world and if you put them into a playoff there would be a different winner every event. That’s my humble opinion and I’m sticking to it😬
Yes this is exactly what myself and a few others were saying in our league just after the Olympics. Those 3 men's teams on the podium are on a higher level than all of the rest. In Canada we always like to think we have depth to compete but not against Mouat and Edin on a consistent basis. This is evident with this week's Slam although more proof was not required. Maybe this will change but can't see it in the short run .
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04-16-22 11:51PM |
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Nine Ender
Swing Artist
Registered: Feb 2009
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quote: Originally posted by prairie guy
Yes this is exactly what myself and a few others were saying in our league just after the Olympics. Those 3 men's teams on the podium are on a higher level than all of the rest. In Canada we always like to think we have depth to compete but not against Mouat and Edin on a consistent basis. This is evident with this week's Slam although more proof was not required. Maybe this will change but can't see it in the short run .
Things change every Olympic cycle. It wouldn't shock me to see Homan and Koe win world titles in 2 years yet neither is being considered elite now by some. Mouat will have some staying power but Edin's getting older who knows.
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04-17-22 07:37AM |
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Frykenstein
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Mar 2009
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quote: Originally posted by Nine Ender
I just looked at the Players and Scott Howard beat them. Kind of proves my point. All the stats you keep bringing up are meaningless. Many Cdn teams aren't on tour especially during Covid but some are competitive with Team Italy. I'm starting to think you've never competed I've played enough to evaluate quality on the ice.
So your point is that Retornaz is mediocre because he lost to Howard? I thought you were arguing that Howard, among many other top Cdn men's teams, are top contenders. In which case, they <i>should</i> beat the lowly/lucky Retornaz, right? Which is it?
By the way, Retornaz def. Jacobs a few draws earlier at the Players. See? I can also cherry pick random games to "prove" my point.
Still waiting for you to defend your original contention--with something other than your self-proclaimed expert evaluative skills--that there are 15-20 Canadian men's teams who would contend for a medal in int'l play.
An entire season's worth of "meaningless" stats suggest that's not true. All you've provided are your opinions, a persistent attempt the change the subject to Joel Retornaz (and w/o much success), and now a shift to ad hominem arguments (i.e., I must not have ever "competed").
But please, continue. Tell me more about your opinions. I've enjoyed watching you move the goalposts. Must be good, valuable exercise for a competitor such as yourself.
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04-17-22 10:43AM |
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MKL
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Mar 2020
Location: Saskatooooooon
Posts: 21 |
quote: Originally posted by Frykenstein
Retornaz's record against Top 50 teams this year was well above .500, so their success at Worlds maybe isn't the fluke you're suggesting it is.
But go ahead. Find 20 Canadian teams who fared significantly better against Top 50 teams this season than Retornaz did. I'll wait. (Hint: Koe and Bottcher were comparable, but not markedly better.)
I think I may see a problem with the idea that a team's record against other top 50 teams in the world can be a true determination of the team's quality. It may be a good indicator, but maybe not a be-all end-all stat.
I think we can all agree that the top 10 teams are much better than teams 25-50. If a team plays more games against top 5 or top 10 teams (for example, Grand Slam teams), than a team who plays more games against lower ranked teams, then the former team has a much more difficult schedule than the latter team. This can obviously effect their winning percentage overall, especially for the lower level teams competing at the Slams.
I don't know what your methodology was, and I definitely have no interest in doing it myself, but I would be curious to see what a weighted win-loss percentage would be for the teams, for instance against top 10 teams, 10-20, 20-30, 30-40, and 40-50.
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04-17-22 02:00PM |
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Nine Ender
Swing Artist
Registered: Feb 2009
Location:
Posts: 338 |
quote: Originally posted by Frykenstein
So your point is that Retornaz is mediocre because he lost to Howard? I thought you were arguing that Howard, among many other top Cdn men's teams, are top contenders. In which case, they <i>should</i> beat the lowly/lucky Retornaz, right? Which is it?
By the way, Retornaz def. Jacobs a few draws earlier at the Players. See? I can also cherry pick random games to "prove" my point.
Still waiting for you to defend your original contention--with something other than your self-proclaimed expert evaluative skills--that there are 15-20 Canadian men's teams who would contend for a medal in int'l play.
An entire season's worth of "meaningless" stats suggest that's not true. All you've provided are your opinions, a persistent attempt the change the subject to Joel Retornaz (and w/o much success), and now a shift to ad hominem arguments (i.e., I must not have ever "competed").
But please, continue. Tell me more about your opinions. I've enjoyed watching you move the goalposts. Must be good, valuable exercise for a competitor such as yourself.
I'll give you that my ballpark numbers were a little high ( mainly due to some aging/retirements and consolidation on some of the teams ). I see 5 strong Gold medial threats.and 10-11 medal threats but as many as 15 or 16 given this years field.
Fournier and Flemming are ranked #16 and #17 to give readers an idea what I base this on. The luxury of a free pass to finals, funding, coaching, would make any of these teams stronger the year of the event.
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04-17-22 11:06PM |
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IN-OFF-FOR-2
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Mar 2013
Location:
Posts: 1875 |
?
I’m a little confused here. Frykenstein nine ender and MKL, Are your statements about Retornaz, Fournier and Flemming an insult or a pat on the back for them? Both Flemming and Fournier are good Canadian teams without the time, money, and big sponsorship dollars to travel like the top teams. Both similar skill sets. Flemming one of the top curlers in Canada with little respect from the big money curlers.
FYI your boy Retornaz came to NS and played in the Stu Sells last November to get some ice time before the Europeans. Great guys. Semi celebrities with the local fans. He and Flemming both made the 1/4 finals and lost. Many other teams advanced including Fournier without Fournier. Check the listing here on CZ events.
Don’t understand why you’d pump up or sarcastically try to trash either team. Am I missing something?
I say well done Retornaz on their year. Same for Fournier and Flemming.
I’ll ask this. As good as Retornaz is, how would they fare at either the pretrials or trials in Canada. Wouldn’t make the playoffs let alone qualify in the trials, outside chance at the pretrials.
That’s top 20 or so in Canada let alone the world.
Yeah yeah you play a lot and travel a lot and get points, doesn’t make you better than top teams on the ice, only on paper and calculators.
Sorry Easter rant.
Last edited by IN-OFF-FOR-2 on 04-18-22 at 12:17AM
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04-18-22 12:11AM |
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MKL
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Mar 2020
Location: Saskatooooooon
Posts: 21 |
Re: ?
quote: Originally posted by IN-OFF-FOR-2
I’m a little confused here. Frykenstein nine ender and MKL, Are your statements about Retornaz, Fournier and Flemming an insult or a pat on the back for them? Both Flemming and Fournier are good Canadian teams without the time, money, and big sponsorship dollars to travel like the top teams. Both similar skill sets. Flemming one of the top curlers in Canada with little respect from the big money curlers.
FYI your boy Retornaz came to NS and played in the Stu Sells last November to get some ice time before the Europeans. Great guys. Semi celebrities with the local fans. He and Flemming both made the 1/4 finals and lost. Many other teams advanced including Fournier without Fournier. Check the listing here on CZ events.
Don’t understand why you’d pump up or sarcastically try to trash either team. Am I missing something?
I say well done Retornaz on their year. Same for Fournier and Flemming.
I’ll ask this. As good as Retornaz is, how would they fare at either the pretrials or trials in Canada. Wouldn’t make the playoffs let alone qualify in the trials, outside chance at the pretrials.
That’s top 20 or so in Canada let alone the world.
Yeah yeah you play a lot and travel a lot and get points, doesn’t make you better than top teams on the ice, only on paper and calculators.
Sorry Easter rant.
My statement has nothing to do with any specific team, just my opinion against the idea that a team's record against Top 50 teams is a good way of rating teams. It may be, I don't know. I also don't know how such ratings effect the teams you mentioned, or any teams for that matter. The only point that I was trying to make is that, generally, a team that plays more games against Top 10 teams and less games against lower ranked teams has a more difficult schedule, and that will probably be reflected in their winning percentages. I'm not disparaging teams that don't or can't travel and tour, in fact I didn't mention any teams specifically. I think that it is reasonable to assume that any Grand Slam team would end up playing more games against other Grand Slam teams, and that that may lower their winning percentages against Top 50 teams, especially those teams that are in positions 11-15(16) of the Grand Slam field. Its not the fault of non-Grand Slam teams that they may not play as many games against Top 10 teams in a season, but I'm thinking it is probably a fact. I am thus criticizing the concept of ranking teams based on their record against Top 50 teams, without taking into account their records against Top 10 teams, and also their records against teams with lower rankings.
P.S. Please re-read my one post on this subject. I don't believe that I was even the least bit sarcastic, nor did I put anyone down or pump them up. If you disagree, please tell me how?
Last edited by MKL on 04-18-22 at 12:43AM
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04-18-22 12:40AM |
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Nine Ender
Swing Artist
Registered: Feb 2009
Location:
Posts: 338 |
Re: ?
[QUOTE]Originally posted by IN-OFF-FOR-2
I’m a little confused here. Frykenstein nine ender and MKL, Are your statements about Retornaz, Fournier and Flemming an insult or a pat on the back for them? Both Flemming and Fournier are good Canadian teams without the time, money, and big sponsorship dollars to travel like the top teams. Both similar skill sets. Flemming one of the top curlers in Canada with little respect from the big money curlers.
FYI your boy Retornaz came to NS and played in the Stu Sells last November to get some ice time before the Europeans. Great guys. Semi celebrities with the local fans. He and Flemming both made the 1/4 finals and lost. Many other teams advanced including Fournier without Fournier. Check the listing here on CZ events.
Don’t understand why you’d pump up or sarcastically try to trash either team. Am I missing something?
I say well done Retornaz on their year. Same for Fournier and Flemming.
I’ll ask this. As good as Retornaz is, how would they fare at either the pretrials or trials in Canada. Wouldn’t make the playoffs let alone qualify in the trials, outside chance at the pretrials.
That’s top 20 or so in Canada let alone the world.
Yeah yeah you play a lot and travel a lot and get points, doesn’t make you better than top teams on the ice, only on paper and calculators.
Sorry Easter rant.
My posts are supportive of all these teams; I'm assessing them as basically similar strength teams with different circumstances dictating what they can win. We are 100% in agreement. I only mentioned the rankings, which I called mostly meaningless, because the other guy is bringing them up, I stand by my posted opinions except that when I looked more carefully there were only 5 gold medal threats ( not 7 or 8 ) and the medal threats 15-20 was a little high. If we go back 4-6 years ago that count was more justifiable. I agree Flemming etc are kind of hidden gems also teams like Murphy, Simmons, Cotter depending on their lineups and schedule. Epping may even be a gold medal threat but their season kind of went the wrong way and John's a streaky player. I'm sure some people will disagree with me but the point is there is plenty of overlooked talent in Canada.
Team Italy may be on the upswing so evaluating them may be pointless they may have already gotten better since Xmas. Strong season we'll see if there's continuation or more next year.
Last edited by Nine Ender on 04-18-22 at 06:22PM
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04-18-22 11:39AM |
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Frykenstein
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Mar 2009
Location:
Posts: 61 |
Re: ?
quote: Originally posted by IN-OFF-FOR-2
I’m a little confused here. Frykenstein nine ender and MKL, Are your statements about Retornaz, Fournier and Flemming an insult or a pat on the back for them?
Not meant to insult or congratulate anybody. Just making an observation based on what the data imply.
This is not a Grand Unified Theory of curling success. It's a reply to Nine Ender's original claim that Canada's top 15-20 men's teams would contend for a medal at the Olys or Worlds, and 6-8 would vie for gold.
Competitors at the Olys and Worlds this year were almost universally Top 50. So my premise is this: if you don't typically win most of your games against Top 50 teams, you're not going to contend for a medal at the Olys or Worlds.
Here's the Top 30-ranked teams as of this week, along with their W-L record and winning % against Top 50 teams this season (at the time of the event), as recorded on CZ. (The Players results are not included, nor were any events--usually in August--where WTR figures were not listed on CZ.) They're further averaged in groups of five. Asterisks mark medals won this season at Olys or Worlds. Typos or miscounts likely.
===================
** Gushue: 43-11 (80%)
** Edin: 36-14 (72%)
* Mouat: 35-9 (80%)
Koe: 29-17 (63%)
Jacobs: 31-12 (72%)
AVG: 73%
Bottcher: 20-18 (53%)
* Retornaz: 31-22 (58%)
Howard: 28-22 (56%)
Dunstone: 23-24 (49%)
Flasch: 30-21 (59%)
AVG: 55%
Schwaller: 22-23 (49%)
Whyte: 23-16 (58%)
Walstad: 24-12 (66%)
Gunnlaugson: 23-33 (41%)
McEwen: 26-21 (55%)
AVG: 54%
Hoesli: 14-10 (58%)
de Cruz: 23-21 (52%)
Epping: 14-24 (37%)
Simmons: 18-12 (60%)
Totzek: 14-29 (33%)
AVG: 48%
Horgan: 15-20 (43%)
Hartung: 8-10 (44%)
Sturmay: 13-27 (33%)
Shuster: 14-12 (54%)
Stocker: 9-14 (39%)
AVG: 43%
Paterson: 6-17 (26%)
Tardi: 15-16 (48%)
Fournier: 9-10 (48%)
Dropkin: 15-16 (48%)
Ramsfjell: 7-14 (33%)
AVG: 41%
======================
There's an obvious elite at the very top, a significant drop to the second tier, and then a gradual decline.
It's clear that Canada has several (4? 5?) of the world's very best teams. Any of them should contend for gold. But it is a stretch to say that the Top 15 or 20 Canadian teams would contend for a medal. They would likely not do so, because they don't play well enough against that competition, and as long as there are a few excellent non-Canadian teams at these events (e.g., Mouat, Edin), there's very little room left on the podium.
Yes, flukes happen--Shuster's W-L in 2018 was barely above 50%, and he won Oly gold. OTOH, some teams tank. I don't know what Koe's % was that year, but he almost certainly underperformed in Korea. He was, I think, the first Canadian team to lose to the US in the Olys, and did it twice.
Canada may have more depth than any other country--it's not really even close--but most of those teams still don't win enough at the highest level to have a reliable shot at playoffs, let alone the podium.
Last edited by Frykenstein on 04-19-22 at 08:08AM
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