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GregJP
Swing Artist
Registered: Mar 2006
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 378 |
In the game of chess going first is advantageous, just like going last is better in curling. So players with the white pieces win more than they lose against opponents of equal ability level.
So a championship is never decided by one game or an odd number of games where one player has the white pieces more than the other player.
At the minimum you play two games with each player having white once and black once. If that doesn't resolve things you repeat that process. If you absolutely need to finish you play what is called an armageddon game. In that scenario white gets a time handicap and if it's a draw then black is declared the winner. Hmmm.... Sounds familiar. lol
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03-06-22 08:36PM |
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johnnysmoke
Drawmaster
Registered: Nov 2002
Location:
Posts: 612 |
You might have an argument for men's curling at an elite level.
Certainly not the women. So many games at last year's world women's (pretty elite) with 4 enders, 5 enders, multiple point steals etc.
The statistical edge is non-existent.
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03-06-22 08:37PM |
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GregJP
Swing Artist
Registered: Mar 2006
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 378 |
quote: Originally posted by johnnysmoke
You might have an argument for men's curling at an elite level.
Certainly not the women. So many games at last year's world women's (pretty elite) with 4 enders, 5 enders, multiple point steals etc.
The statistical edge is non-existent.
That's really all we are talking about. Maybe 30-40 teams in the world. They are just too damn good. The trials final was a 50/50 game and the team that had hammer in the first end was going to win 70-80% of the time. That's just not fair. You work your ass off for years and one draw basically decides it.
I think that the regular game will eventually follow the path of mixed doubles and start ends with rocks in play to neutralize the hammer advantage in each end. It will make for more exciting games and be fairer to the teams.
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03-06-22 08:51PM |
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curlingclips
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Oct 2019
Location:
Posts: 1523 |
quote: Originally posted by GregJP
The trials final [...] one draw basically decides it.
I like your arguments, and I encourage you to keep going, but you made a booboo here.
For the trials final, LSFE was not decided by one draw. It's not even decided by two draws (Canada has recently started using 2 draws to decide LSFE). It's not even decided by a two dozen draws.
LSFE at the final is decided by whichever team has the better win/loss record, or, if they're equal, by head-to-head in round robin game.
The round robin game did use LSD to decide LSFE, but you can no longer make a direct consequence at that point, since that was days prior, not something that happened half an hour before the game.
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03-06-22 08:57PM |
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johnnysmoke
Drawmaster
Registered: Nov 2002
Location:
Posts: 612 |
OK, let's look at the trials.
Jacobs was 7-1 in the round robin. They outscored their opponents 63 to 35 in these games.
They had the hammer to start the games in .....wait for it...
3 of the 8 games.
What was your point again?
(Bottom line, they lost the final because they played a very conservative game and didn't score a deuce in any end.)
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03-06-22 09:21PM |
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GregJP
Swing Artist
Registered: Mar 2006
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 378 |
I stand corrected about the trials final.
I actually think that the better team in the round robin deserves a slight advantage in the playoffs. So I have no problem with a 7-1 team getting the hammer in the first end against a 6-2 team because they have earned that advantage.
What I REALLY HATE is H2H record determining anything. I might even hate that more than LSFE or whatever the hell it's called.
If two teams finish at 6-3 why should it matter who won one particular game? If team A beat team B it means they were only 5-3 against the rest of the field while team B was 6-2. In other sports like soccer the first tiebreaker is goal difference. Why not go with points difference? Why do scores of games matter in other sports, but not in curling?
I know that games end early and there are some extreme blowouts, but there has to be a way to do it. Maybe points for and against in games against playoff teams.
I know H2H is the easiest, but I've never understood why winning that one game is more important in the big picture than winning one less game against the rest of the field.
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03-06-22 10:18PM |
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curlingclips
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Oct 2019
Location:
Posts: 1523 |
quote: Originally posted by johnnysmoke
OK, let's look at the trials.
Men's, the team with LSFE wins 60% of the time. Women's is 55%.
You can't dismiss statistical trend by pointing out anomalies.
I acknowledge that there are complex reasons why the team with LSFE wins more often than without, so this doesn't necessarily prove anything, but those are the numbers nonetheless.
Here's the breakdown by team (number of games won with LSFE, number of games with LSFE, number of games).
Men's:
0 2 8 Horgan
1 3 8 McEwen
1 4 8 Bottcher
2 4 8 Gunnlaugson
3 4 9 Koe
3 5 8 Dunstone
3 6 8 Epping
4 4 10 Jacobs
6 6 9 Gushue
Women's:
1 3 8 Rocque
1 4 8 Harrison
1 5 8 Homan
2 2 8 Walker
2 3 9 Scheidegger
2 5 10 Einarson
4 5 9 Fleury
4 7 10 Jones
5 6 10 McCarville
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03-06-22 10:24PM |
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aluchko
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Dec 2013
Location:
Posts: 25 |
I actually don't mind the idea of the team throwing first getting an extra 0.5pts:
- For the elites (and bonspiels) extra ends screw up scheduling and are rarely interesting ends (defending team just peels).
- For the club level no one plays extra ends, it's all draw to the button which is too much about the skip (all the 3rd does is hold the broom!)
- Being down in the first end might encourage the team with hammer to be a bit more aggressive.
- Ideally, no one should be starting the game with a statistical advantage. The elite "draw to the button" for hammer rule is just weird (and again, mostly about the skip). If a 0.5pt advantage makes it closer to 50-50 that's awesome.
I don't get the complaints about "taking rocks out of our hands" or "not deciding the game on the ice". Draws to the button take rocks out of everyone's hands but the skip, and a 60% advantage out of the gate is the definition of not deciding things on the ice!
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10-24-22 11:48AM |
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oliviertoisel
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2021
Location:
Posts: 587 |
Draw to the button at most major tournaments requires all players to throw throughout the week, not just the skip.
Also I can't believe this thread is still going. The easiest solution its remove blanks. No need for weird internet brain 0.5 rules. The most you can have hammer is 5 times unless you give up a steal.
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10-25-22 06:51PM |
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aluchko
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Dec 2013
Location:
Posts: 25 |
A draw to the button doesn't eliminate the advantage of first rock in the last end, it just tries to distribute it a bit more fairly.
As for eliminating blanks, you might actually make it easier to defend a lead. When the team that's leading has to defend they just need to hold the team with hammer to one and then they get the hammer back. That's the reason teams blank in the first place!
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10-26-22 11:11AM |
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oliviertoisel
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2021
Location:
Posts: 587 |
quote: Originally posted by aluchko
As for eliminating blanks, you might actually make it easier to defend a lead.
But the purpose isn't to make defending a lead harder. I think this epitomizes the issue with these discussions: people trying to solve ten problems with 1 solution. But those problems and solutions are at odds with each other.
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12-28-22 10:12PM |
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