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myhouse911
Hitting Paint
Registered: Mar 2022
Location: Canada
Posts: 154 |
quote:
Originally posted by oliviertoisel
I think the playoff picture for Canada can be summarized easily: If they win and SCO win then they play Norway in the elimination game (assuming NOR doesn't lose to TUR). Otheriwse it's Scotland or Sweden. So...maybe a good idea to beat Sweden tonight.
Scotland and Norway should have wins tonight. So if Canada can also beat Sweden, it will be 2. Scotland 3. Norway 4. Canada and 5. Sweden
Switzerland in this scenario may not be so thrilled to be seeded first. I can’t expect Edin/Gushue to lose twice to them this week if given the opportunity.
If Canada doesn’t win, and the other two do. Then I believe it is 2. Sweden 3. Scotland 4. Norway and 5. Canada
Canada can be no better than 4th and no worse than 5th regardless of outcomes. They lost to Scotland and Norway therefore cannot overtake either of them.
** this is all based on assuming the DSC rankings do not change **
Last edited by myhouse911 on 04-07-23 at 05:48PM
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04-07-23 05:43PM |
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oliviertoisel
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2021
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Oh you're right, I was looking at 3 not 4. So does Canada want to lose so they play Norway? Or beat Edin 2 times? Yikes.
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04-07-23 05:49PM |
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misty1
Supreme Champion!
Registered: Sep 2011
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This sets up a very interesting scenario tonight. If Canada, Scotland and Norway win the standings would look like this:
Switzerland
Scotland
Norway
Canada
Sweden
Italy
That would mean Scotland and Switzerland get the bye
Norway plays Italy in 3 v.s 6 and Sweden plays Canada in 4 v.s 5. Then the winner of Canada v.s Sweden could get Scotland in the semis. Wild be quite something since those 3 are the new everyone was sure would be on the podium
I really hope it plays out that way
Though I'm sure edin will be pissed and come out guns blazing tonight . No way he wants to finish 5th and have t go through Canada in the elimination game
It ight actually be better for gushue to lose because then he gets Norway in the playoff . We will see but I'm hoping for Norway, Scotland and Canada tonight
I don't think there's anyone in the world who'd want to be in a situation to have to beat edin twice in a row . I don't think there are many who could but if anyone here can it's gushue.
Though it has to be said Switzerland look amazing here. This might just be the yeat the men finally win again
Last edited by misty1 on 04-07-23 at 05:57PM
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04-07-23 05:50PM |
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curlingclips
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Oct 2019
Location:
Posts: 1523 |
To clarify, the semifinals at World Men's & Women's are now always going to be 1v(4v5) and 2v(3v6).
They used to reseed so 1 would play against the lowest seeded team that qualifies (i.e. potential for 1v6), but that's no longer the case.
quote:
Originally posted by misty1
Switzerland
Scotland
Norway
Canada
Sweden
Italy
Then the winner of Canada v.s Sweden could get Scotland in the semis.
No, that can never happen for the reason I just explained above.
Last edited by curlingclips on 04-07-23 at 06:01PM
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04-07-23 05:58PM |
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oliviertoisel
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2021
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Posts: 587 |
If Benoit finally gets a colour other than bronze in his first year without De Druz...lol.
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04-07-23 06:01PM |
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Nine Ender
Swing Artist
Registered: Feb 2009
Location:
Posts: 338 |
quote:
Originally posted by CurlingWatcher1
Score flattered Gushue. Could have been 8-1. So what does he do in the post game scrum: ends up complaining about the ice again.
Canada has only beaten Italy who have been mediocre in this worlds.
USA has been a complete gong show.
Explanation?
They are quite capable of beating any of these teams. All the criticism has no bearing on what will happen at times they have looked really sharp other times not. Probably true of most of these teams.
I see a lot of comments on here that suggest lack of competitive experience from the posters. Which is fine except tone it down drop the dramatics. You really can't predict exactly how playoffs will play out based on RR results. Sweden when they are on look really tough, but there isn't a lot of diff in the top 4 teams ( Norway and Italy to me are somewhat weaker imo ), Canada's main problem at this point is not capability it's the longer series of wins required for Gold. So odds are they won't win but it wouldn't be a shocker if they did.
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04-07-23 06:23PM |
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oliviertoisel
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This isn't unlike 2018 when a weakish Canada powered through to the final.
Nik Edin late in that Suisse game was pretty bad. He was pretty bad against Norway the same way. Against Scotland he was mostly on fire. The Suisse looked pretty bad today up until they won (their strategy in 8 was abysmal).
All of which is to say that I think the biggest problem for all six teams (except the Suisse) is making sure the sloppy version doesn't show up. But that's true for every tournament of 12+ games.
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04-07-23 06:27PM |
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Nine Ender
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Registered: Feb 2009
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quote:
Originally posted by decade
That was a brutal performance this morning by Canada. Only Brad had a better shooting percent over his counterpart. If they play like that tonight it will be over in 6.
You only have to perform at a level to beat your opponent. Shooting percentages are mostly meaningless they often reflect style of play. What was the score of the game again ? Sure, must have been "brutal".
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04-07-23 06:29PM |
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oliviertoisel
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2021
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I watched 2/3 of that game. The Canadian scorer was drunk. Canada was playing a high-70s/low-80s game. Harnden was not in the 50s.
Also worth noting that Gushue is the top skip this week so far after a very rough first few games.
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04-07-23 06:33PM |
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Nine Ender
Swing Artist
Registered: Feb 2009
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quote:
Originally posted by oliviertoisel
This isn't unlike 2018 when a weakish Canada powered through to the final.
Nik Edin late in that Suisse game was pretty bad. He was pretty bad against Norway the same way. Against Scotland he was mostly on fire. The Suisse looked pretty bad today up until they won (their strategy in 8 was abysmal).
All of which is to say that I think the biggest problem for all six teams (except the Suisse) is making sure the sloppy version doesn't show up. But that's true for every tournament of 12+ games.
My opinion is in the first year of an Olympic cycle most of the top teams won't be top form. You do have some line up changes. Edin and Gushue/Nicholls have been at this so long I doubt they can be on their game all the time. From what I've seen Nicholls has been off line on numerous shots but he can turn it on. Canada has messed up a few shots sweeping which is part of adapting to a new second,
Sweden in playoff game one would be a tough break and tougher then Norway. For Canada to win against say Sweden/Swiss/Scotland that would be impressive but a really tough ask.
Hard to say how the newer teams will adapt to playoff pressure I made the mistake of writing off the newer teams in the women's and was wrong. That's why the games are played.
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04-07-23 06:38PM |
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Nine Ender
Swing Artist
Registered: Feb 2009
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Posts: 338 |
quote:
Originally posted by oliviertoisel
I watched 2/3 of that game. The Canadian scorer was drunk. Canada was playing a high-70s/low-80s game. Harnden was not in the 50s.
Also worth noting that Gushue is the top skip this week so far after a very rough first few games.
And the score ? Try to maintain some perspective. It's all about competing and hopefully winning not playing a pretty game.
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04-07-23 06:40PM |
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Martym
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Feb 2018
Location:
Posts: 84 |
Just to follow up on the above are 16 possible scenarios for tonight's final round robin games as per the link below.
https://twitter.com/Devin_Heroux/st...0992770/photo/1
You would assume Scotland will beat NZ and Norway beats Turkey - so four realistic outcomes. And lets say Japan beats Germany.
Then if Canada wins then Scotland join SUI direct in the semis with the rest ranked:
3 Norway
4 Canada
5 Sweden
6 Italy
If SWE win then its down to DSC between Sweden, Norway and Scotland for the rankings for 2-4 with Canada 5th and Italy 6th.
DSC has Sweden, then Canada, then Norway and then Scotland
Scotland will want Canada to win therefore.
https://curlit.com/wmcc/aspnet/dsc?EventID=1
Last edited by Martym on 04-07-23 at 07:32PM
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04-07-23 07:10PM |
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Nine Ender
Swing Artist
Registered: Feb 2009
Location:
Posts: 338 |
quote:
Originally posted by Nine Ender
My opinion is in the first year of an Olympic cycle most of the top teams won't be top form. You do have some line up changes. Edin and Gushue/Nicholls have been at this so long I doubt they can be on their game all the time. From what I've seen Nicholls has been off line on numerous shots but he can turn it on. Canada has messed up a few shots sweeping which is part of adapting to a new second,
Sweden in playoff game one would be a tough break and tougher then Norway. For Canada to win against say Sweden/Swiss/Scotland that would be impressive but a really tough ask.
Hard to say how the newer teams will adapt to playoff pressure I made the mistake of writing off the newer teams in the women's and was wrong. That's why the games are played.
Correction : What I meant to say is Canada to win against ALL of Sweden, Switzerland, and Scotland in order would be a tough ask.
Not sure if Norway losing so far tonight changes anything.
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04-07-23 09:19PM |
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Martym
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Feb 2018
Location:
Posts: 84 |
quote:
Originally posted by Nine Ender
Correction : What I meant to say is Canada to win against ALL of Sweden, Switzerland, and Scotland in order would be a tough ask.
Not sure if Norway losing so far tonight changes anything.
Assuming Germany win as looks likely then it doesn't make any difference to the rankings if Norway or Turkey win - given Canada has won.
The 2-5 ranking is Scotland, Norway, Canada, Sweden either way.
Odd Edin conceded at 8-5 with two ends left? Not good odds but if he won he would have made the semis direct on DSC. Now he ranks 5th.
So either Sweden or Canada won't win a medal.
Last edited by Martym on 04-07-23 at 09:31PM
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04-07-23 09:26PM |
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oliviertoisel
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2021
Location:
Posts: 587 |
quote:
Originally posted by Nine Ender
And the score ? Try to maintain some perspective. It's all about competing and hopefully winning not playing a pretty game.
Huh? Perspective on what? I don't think the shot scoring was accurate? Well that's just my opinion based on what I saw and the stats.
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04-07-23 09:40PM |
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curlingclips
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Oct 2019
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Posts: 1523 |
I'm also rooting for SUI to win.
Back in 2021-2022 season when WCF first announced no-tick trial rule, I think SUI was the only country whose national championships immediately adopted the rule. That's the kind of attitude that we need these days, in my opinion.
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04-07-23 10:38PM |
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misty1
Supreme Champion!
Registered: Sep 2011
Location:
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Odd that edin quit when h did.i mean, given the desperate length he went to to score 2 against Norway and the refusal to lose attitude he a there youd think he'd play on. Score 2 then steal and steal? . Not great odds but still
Rematch with Canada tomorrow like I sid no one envies having to beat edin twice in row but if anyone can it's gushue .
I'll take gushue over edin and retornaz over ramsfjell in the playoff
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04-07-23 10:51PM |
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myhouse911
Hitting Paint
Registered: Mar 2022
Location: Canada
Posts: 154 |
quote:
Originally posted by CurlingWatcher1
My thesis is that they want Switzerland to win the men's this year.
Excuse will be that Canada can't overcome the ice conditions to win it all.
And Sweden has a big fall and doesn't finish in top 3.
You still have not revealed when Canada is going to have a new rep to replace Gushue, so disappointing.
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04-07-23 10:59PM |
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naterock_11
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Mar 2023
Location:
Posts: 24 |
quote:
Originally posted by CurlingWatcher1
My thesis is that they want Switzerland to win the men's this year.
Excuse will be that Canada can't overcome the ice conditions to win it all.
And Sweden has a big fall and doesn't finish in top 3.
Who's "they"? The ice conditions aren't bad so I see how that's an excuse. It's not Vegas last year. But I am sensing the Sweden has a fall narrative building.
Important moral victory for Gushue. They were otherwise headed into the playoffs 5th having lost to every team above them.
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04-07-23 11:12PM |
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Prawnpuller
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Feb 2013
Location: British Columbia
Posts: 97 |
quote:
Originally posted by misty1
Odd that edin quit when h did.i mean, given the desperate length he went to to score 2 against Norway and the refusal to lose attitude he a there youd think he'd play on. Score 2 then steal and steal? . Not great odds but still
Rematch with Canada tomorrow like I sid no one envies having to beat edin twice in row but if anyone can it's gushue .
I'll take gushue over edin and retornaz over ramsfjell in the playoff
Does Gushue have hammer tomorrow by being tied and winning head to head against Edin….If so this would be big …bring your A game and you’ll be fine.
Two things can happen..one is bad
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04-08-23 12:54AM |
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naterock_11
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Mar 2023
Location:
Posts: 24 |
quote:
Originally posted by Prawnpuller
Does Gushue have hammer tomorrow by being tied and winning head to head against Edin
I believe he does and it is big. Don't quote me but he should because they have the same record and he owns the head to head.
Team Sweden wields starting with hammer better than any team in curling.
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04-08-23 01:10AM |
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myhouse911
Hitting Paint
Registered: Mar 2022
Location: Canada
Posts: 154 |
Really nice to see a packed house for the final draw. 6500+ (it says on wikipedia the total capacity is 6500 with 8000 if seats are added) and 4000+ for both draws 18 & 19 as well. It was expected the total attendance for the event would be 70,000 and at the end of round robin play we're at 57,871. So, they could pass 70k before the medal games.
Last edited by myhouse911 on 04-08-23 at 02:57AM
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04-08-23 02:45AM |
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myhouse911
Hitting Paint
Registered: Mar 2022
Location: Canada
Posts: 154 |
quote:
Originally posted by Prawnpuller
Does Gushue have hammer tomorrow by being tied and winning head to head against Edin….If so this would be big …bring your A game and you’ll be fine.
Two things can happen..one is bad
Yes, both Canada and Norway have hammer to start tomorrow.
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04-08-23 02:50AM |
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oliviertoisel
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2021
Location:
Posts: 587 |
quote:
Originally posted by CurlingWatcher1
My thesis is that they want Switzerland to win the men's this year.
Excuse will be that Canada can't overcome the ice conditions to win it all.
And Sweden has a big fall and doesn't finish in top 3.
So your big prediction is that the...first place team...will win? And that's going to be prof of a conspiracy?
Interesting you could only predict that after the round robin.
quote:
Originally posted by curlingclips
I'm also rooting for SUI to win.
Back in 2021-2022 season when WCF first announced no-tick trial rule, I think SUI was the only country whose national championships immediately adopted the rule. That's the kind of attitude that we need these days, in my opinion.
You want them to win for something they did last year, and everyone does now, when they placed 6th? Utterly bizarre.
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04-08-23 10:18AM |
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curlingclips
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Oct 2019
Location:
Posts: 1523 |
quote:
Originally posted by oliviertoisel
You want them to win for something they did last year, and everyone does now, when they placed 6th? Utterly bizarre.
When I said I wanted SUI to win, it has nothing to do with Team Schwaller specifically. I'm talking about the SUI program as a whole and how they look at the sport, which seems unique compared to other curling nations.
* Adopting no-tick rule immediately, no questions asked, zero hesitancy
* Maybe 100% conformance with WCF rules, or at least there's no glaring difference that I'm aware of, unlike say CAN
* Maybe no tiebreaker games either, unlike say CAN and USA
* World champions automatically go to Olympics (Tirinzoni)
* From interviews, it sounds like they learned from their 2022 Olympic trial for the men's and will push it back one season
* Best-of-X series for trials
I don't know who runs the high performance program in SUI, but it seems like a good model to follow, so I would love for SUI to be World Men's & Women's champions. That's all I'm saying.
In Sandviken, there were sponsor banners for various teams. Team Einarson had a Gimli/Manitoba Métis Federation banner, for example.
Switzerland had a banner featuring the five interlocking Olympic rings, suggesting that they were sponsored by the Swiss Olympic Committee. (There are no 2026 Olympic qualification points up for grabs in 2023.)
It's a completely different attitude.
Last edited by curlingclips on 04-08-23 at 11:52AM
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04-08-23 11:40AM |
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