Registered: Mar 2005
Location: St. Albert
Posts: 839

Just as a way to take our minds off hair brooms and sweeping technique, I thought I'd pose a strategy question.

I was re-reading an old article I wrote in 2008 (wow I'm old).

http://curlwithmath.blogspot.ca/200...y-when-one.html

It got me to thinking about end game situations and how this scenario, 1 down with hammer starting the 9th (or 7th) end is still fascinating to see develop. I have seen teams approach it different ways and am still not certain what the ideal strategy for the team with hammer should be. Most teams would probably take a blank if it was offered, but that's not how the end usually unfolds.

What does everyone else think about this strategic quagmire?

Last edited by milobloom on 02-18-16 at 10:47PM

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Registered: Mar 2005
Location: St. Albert
Posts: 839

I should add that since this was written, the odds of losing when tied without hammer in the last (or extra) end have gone up from 75% and is now closing in on 80%, particularly in Slams. Interestingly, the odds for 1 down in the last end is still around 40%. We still don't have enough 5 rock data to compare and have yet to see a meaningful difference. We suspect that given the extra guard is often not in play, 1 up is ultimately the same type of end. 5-rock when a team is 2 up in the last end changes the situation however.

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Registered: Dec 2015
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Another "age-old" strategy question- Coming home 1 up without the hammer- Do you go "hard" for the steal?

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Registered: Feb 2006
Location: Canada
Posts: 407

Personally, I think teams get into trouble by trying to make these sorts of decisions in advance -- and stick to them.

For me, the strategy would depend not only on the score, the hammer, and the end, but also on the ice conditions, how well the opponents were playing, and how well my teammates were playing.

Just my two cents. Don't spend 'em both in the same place. ;-)

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Registered: Apr 2005
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quote:

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Originally posted by curlinggrandma
Another "age-old" strategy question- Coming home 1 up without the hammer- Do you go "hard" for the steal?

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Registered: Mar 2005
Location: St. Albert
Posts: 839

To be clear, I'm interested in how the team WITH hammer plays when they are down 1 in the 9th (or 7th end). Not the last end.

The non-hammer play is fairly clear. They have the advantage in pushing for a force or steal at the risk of giving up two.

And I couldn't disagree more about thinking in advance. Yes, ice conditions and opposition can factor in (though at top levels these are fairly consistent). Waiting for a situation to happen is not a great idea, especially if your clock is running down and you need to save time for the final end.

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Registered: Feb 2006
Location: Canada
Posts: 407

quote:

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Originally posted by milobloom
I couldn't disagree more about thinking in advance. Yes, ice conditions and opposition can factor in (though at top levels these are fairly consistent). Waiting for a situation to happen is not a great idea, especially if your clock is running down and you need to save time for the final end.

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Registered: Feb 2007
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Posts: 631

quote:

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Originally posted by milobloom
Just as a way to take our minds off hair brooms and sweeping technique, I thought I'd pose a strategy question.

I was re-reading an old article I wrote in 2008 (wow I'm old).

http://curlwithmath.blogspot.ca/200...y-when-one.html

It got me to thinking about end game situations and how this scenario, 1 down with hammer starting the 9th (or 7th) end is still fascinating to see develop. I have seen teams approach it different ways and am still not certain what the ideal strategy for the team with hammer should be. Most teams would probably take a blank if it was offered, but that's not how the end usually unfolds.

What does everyone else think about this strategic quagmire?

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Registered: Apr 2014
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quote:

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Originally posted by milobloom
I should add that since this was written, the odds of losing when tied without hammer in the last (or extra) end have gone up from 75% and is now closing in on 80%, particularly in Slams. Interestingly, the odds for 1 down in the last end is still around 40%. We still don't have enough 5 rock data to compare and have yet to see a meaningful difference. We suspect that given the extra guard is often not in play, 1 up is ultimately the same type of end. 5-rock when a team is 2 up in the last end changes the situation however.

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"It is easy in the world to live after the world's opinion; it is easy in solitude to live after our own... but the great man is he who, in the midst of the crowd, keeps with perfect sweetness the independence of solitude." ~ Ralph Waldo Emerson

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Registered: Apr 2005
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My observation is many elite teams psychologically want to have the hammer down one in the last end, despite the stats, so they tend to pursue the end with a blank in mind. At this level a force is almost as good as losing on the spot.

At the club level, it's harder to force a blank, and since steal percentage is likely higher, going for a deuce makes sense, where the world doesn't end if you get forced. At the club level, deuces also have a way of turning into treys, and that's a game-ender in this scenario.

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Registered: Mar 2015
Location: Central Alberta
Posts: 6

quote:

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Originally posted by milobloom
Just as a way to take our minds off hair brooms and sweeping technique, I thought I'd pose a strategy question.

I was re-reading an old article I wrote in 2008 (wow I'm old).

http://curlwithmath.blogspot.ca/200...y-when-one.html

It got me to thinking about end game situations and how this scenario, 1 down with hammer starting the 9th (or 7th) end is still fascinating to see develop. I have seen teams approach it different ways and am still not certain what the ideal strategy for the team with hammer should be. Most teams would probably take a blank if it was offered, but that's not how the end usually unfolds.

What does everyone else think about this strategic quagmire?

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Registered: Apr 2005
Location:
Posts: 399

quote:

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Originally posted by LMXcurls


Assuming the team without hammer places a center guard, I'd pursue the draw to the wings, back 8 foot. You could ice it tight for the tick (if you've got a lead that tends to flare or dump shots) and as long as the weight control and sweeping is good, you should be in a good spot. Back 8 doesn't allow a hit and roll behind the guard, or at least not one that doesn't allow a freeze on top of it.

Assume the other team then tries a come around. At this point you follow them around and then it becomes a game of peels and angles. If they try a freeze on your back 8 rock, they run the risk of bringing 2-3 into play. If they hit, you get to keep play on the wings for a while.

That's usually how I would play it, though factors such as the ice, team percentage and strength of opponent always play in.

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Registered: Dec 2003
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Posts: 33

Agree w RockDoc - robo-blank happens a lot, and it's hard to do on command. We'd probably go hard for the deuce and take risks (you're going to have to to win the game anyways, might as well do it when you've got the hammer). If you drop the steal, you go hard for the deuce in 10 and play to steal the extra. If you get the deuce, you have a couple more options in 10 (conservative, play for a force and get hammer in the extra, or apply a bit of early pressure and try to lock up a steal if they make a mistake early going for the deuce and a win instead of securing a way to score). As you said, this is fun as there's no one 'right' way to play this.

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

Down 1 With playing the 9th...hummm. Blank is a good outcome. Scoring 1 is bad. Them stealing 1 is bad. Scoring 2 is (here, but almost always) good...but not great.

So if I were to rank those outcomes, I'd have them in the order of Blank, Score 2, Opposition steal 1, Force to 1.

With those preferences in order, I'm prepared to make a decision depending on their first rock.

If they come into the house, I'm hitting and going for the blank. I'd stick around and not peel, but I'd try to get cute with the roll because a rollout isn't bad at all. I'd hit no matter where they came into the paint...even backhouse.

If they throw a center guard (especially a long center), I'm countering with a corner or the tic to 2 corners. If it is Game On, then I'm going hard for the deuce. The comearound is not an option because, if they follow it in, the force is too likely.

So I'm viewing it as Blank or Bingo. No score or a big score. Their rock sets the song and I have to be ready to dance.

NOT using stats to be prepared for Late Game scenarios is leaving a tool unused. True, SLAM play doesn't reflect reality for most curlers; but beneath the numbers lay the logic.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Apr 2005
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Posts: 399

I like your logic, Tuck, but I'd rate the priorities a little differently: Score 2, blank, force to 1, steal 1, with the last two options nearly equally bad. The main problem is the strategies to score 2 and blank are typically at odds with each other.

Statistically, up one without is probably better than even win expectancy (WE) especially at the club level; down 1 with is probably just under even WE odds; tied without is probably 25-40% WE at the club level, and down 2 with is probably very low WE, as you need to get a deuce or better (less than even chance, I think) PLUS steal the extra end.

Some day, I'm gonna do my little experiment at the club and get typical hammer, force, steal efficiencies, etc. in our own club leagues just for fun to see how they stack up to the elite level percentages. It requires me to get full line scores every night, though, which requires a great deal of cooperation (and memory to do it.)

Cheers.

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Registered: Dec 2005
Location: St. Thomas, North Dakota
Posts: 2613

Exactly, RockDoc. Your approach to the 9th should be predicated on where you will accept being in the 10th.

I strongly prefer the Blank over taking 2; but not strongly enough to risk everything to achieve it. With the Blank (and hammer coming home down 1), you have a good expectation of winning and a very good expectation of getting to an extra end (albeit, without the hammer). Maybe Milo can give us fresh numbers on 10th End Down 1 With Hammer.

As for league play: It's league play. Take points whenever they are available. Count on the other team missing some. I don't believe this plotting of strategy can apply to something that can be, at times, very random. It's hard enough when the curlers are at 85%.

So my answer to Milo's question is a question: What does your opponent do with the first rock? I'm going to assume that they are smart and lay a long guard, with the strategy to force you to 1 and have hammer coming home tied up. If so, I think you have to dance to the tune they have selected.

You draw the side rings and they hit/stick. Unless they roll out sometime soon, somebody is scoring. It had better be me and it better be more than 1...so I'm going for broke. Throw the corner and dream of 3.

Ben Tucker

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Registered: Sep 2002
Location: London, Ontario
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quote:

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Originally posted by tuck
I strongly prefer the Blank over taking 2; but not strongly enough to risk everything to achieve it. With the Blank (and hammer coming home down 1), you have a good expectation of winning and a very good expectation of getting to an extra end (albeit, without the hammer). Maybe Milo can give us fresh numbers on 10th End Down 1 With Hammer.

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Registered: Feb 2006
Location: Canada
Posts: 407

quote:

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Originally posted by fresca
planning in curling is like budgeting in business ...

all is well until someone misses a shot - or no customers come into the store for a week ...


thats when the leads, seconds and thirds and coaches come down and we hear those magic words

"what do you like ? "

followed by 2 excruciatingly painful minutes of indecision and

" i dont mind this ..."

in our abode we decided to not call this "thinking time"

it happens at all levels but is most disturbing when top mens teams act it out

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Registered: Mar 2023
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Posts: 2

This article offers valuable insights connections and practical advice. I'll definitely be using this information in my daily life.

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