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oliviertoisel
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2021
Location:
Posts: 587 |
3 spots for the 4 person left.
Women's side: Japan looking quite good now but they've only had one tough game. Korea must be very happy with the win over Germany. Turkey is obviously the big story, but Germany must be concerned now after two big losses. Muirhead can't afford to miss out on the Olympics it would be a brutal humiliation after just winning the Euros.
Men's side the biggest story is how bad the Japanese are playing. Otherwise Norway and Italy were early favourites and seem to be doing well.
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12-12-21 11:18AM |
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Observer
Swing Artist
Registered: Apr 2016
Location: River Falls, WI, USA
Posts: 445 |
OQE ice plant breaks down
The OQE has just been suspended because the ice plant has broken down.
Eve Muirhead had some quotes earlier about very poor ice conditions today during their surprise loss to Turkey, and now it looks like she definitely had a point,
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12-12-21 02:03PM |
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curlerbroad
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Feb 2004
Location: Toronto
Posts: 2668 |
Re: OQE ice plant breaks down
quote:
Originally posted by Observer
The OQE has just been suspended because the ice plant has broken down.
Eve Muirhead had some quotes earlier about very poor ice conditions today during their surprise loss to Turkey, and now it looks like she definitely had a point,
What a schmozzle…did the WCF ice team not check out the venue first? Quick see if any rinks in Scotland or Germany are available
__________________
Well Behaved Women Don't Make History.
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12-12-21 02:20PM |
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curlingclips
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Oct 2019
Location:
Posts: 1523 |
it would've been sad/funny/ironic if the ice plant broke down because they cranked it up yesterday after the ice logo change to get rid of EasyToys. I understand that they didn't have to melt the entire thing, but that has got to put additional strain on the ice plant anyway, since replacing logo takes time, and yesterday was supposed to be practice time for the men's and women's too.
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12-12-21 03:02PM |
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curlerbroad
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Feb 2004
Location: Toronto
Posts: 2668 |
Uh oh, Scotland lost to Korea today…hopefully they can get back on track.
__________________
Well Behaved Women Don't Make History.
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12-13-21 07:09AM |
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albetts
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Jan 2006
Location: Peterborough
Posts: 1120 |
quote:
Originally posted by curlingclips
You Canadians are so adorable!
Thank you.
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12-13-21 08:12AM |
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oliviertoisel
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2021
Location:
Posts: 587 |
Is the ice the explanation for why Muirhead is now nearing must-win territory? A really sad start given what she did three weeks ago. Of course a win against Japan now would go a long way and she just scored 2. But she can't afford another Turkey situation. Biggest other surprise is the German women struggling; so much for my prediction they were real contenders (though I guess winning out keeps hope alive). And for all the talk of Turkey...Latvia is 3-1 though all against weaker teams.
On the men's side still no major surprises and the Japanese men seem to be recovering. Walstad and Retornaz still seem likely to make 1st and 2nd.
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12-13-21 01:31PM |
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Observer
Swing Artist
Registered: Apr 2016
Location: River Falls, WI, USA
Posts: 445 |
Scotland beat Japan 8-5 today. I kept an eye on the live scoring as it went, and all 4 shot very high percentages today, so I think they're finally getting the ice figured out. This puts them at 2-2 and tied for 4th place. They're looking up at Korea (who they lost to), Japan (who they beat), and at Latvia (who they've yet to play), and are level with Estonia (who they've yet to play).
Winning the round robin will be tough for them given that Korea loss, but they're in OK position to still win the 2, 3, or 4 spot for the playoff games.
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12-13-21 03:57PM |
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oliviertoisel
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2021
Location:
Posts: 587 |
It really is shocking to see 3.5 ft draws in, essentially, an Olympic-caliber event. I can't remember seeing such dull ice in years either. I saw some of the Japan game and at one point she called a draw to the edge of the four and had a broom on the edge of the eight (she was then a tad wide but it curled may 2.5ft before the house). What's odd is it was that way for the mixed doubles tournament (which makes the straight ice even more painful) and yet they didn't seen to fix it. I find World Curling's love of 4.5ft curl annoying to start with but this is beyond. (I think 5ft is about right, some of these Canadian surfaces the past couple years with 6-7ft total, 2ft curl past the guard are too much the other way).
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12-13-21 06:30PM |
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Bulls Eye
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Mar 2017
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Posts: 80 |
quote:
Originally posted by oliviertoisel
Latvia is 3-1 though all against weaker teams.
More important to do well against the weaker teams as these are the H2H results that are more likely to count in getting that last playoff spot.
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12-13-21 08:09PM |
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oliviertoisel
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2021
Location:
Posts: 587 |
quote:
Originally posted by Bulls Eye
More important to do well against the weaker teams as these are the H2H results that are more likely to count in getting that last playoff spot.
It's more important to win more games. 5 wins gets you through (it seems) and it doesn't matter who it's against. And if you get through and yet lose to everyone above you then you're 4th when a win against a higher team and a loss against a lower would've landed you 3rd or something. This is a round robin where placement matters a lot so these are all very important. I'd rather go 5-3 beating the top teams than 5-3 the worst.
Of course they might just go 7-1 and take the auto-berth.
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12-13-21 08:49PM |
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curlingclips
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Oct 2019
Location:
Posts: 1523 |
quote:
Originally posted by oliviertoisel
I'd rather go 5-3 beating the top teams than 5-3 the worst.
Eh, it's not quite that simple. Let's take a look at the 3-way tie at 2021 World Women's for example.
USA, CAN and KOR were tied at 7W-6L, and there are only 2 playoff spots. USA and CAN beat KOR, so KOR is eliminated on head-to-head.
KOR actually beat SWE, which at 10W-3L is higher ranked. This fact gave KOR no advantage. It would've been better if KOR lost to higher ranked SWE and instead beat lower ranked USA or CAN, because that would've given KOR a playoff spot (either via head-to-head or via DSC, of which KOR was the best amongst the 3).
In an alternate universe where USA, CAN and KOR were tied at 7W-6L, and KOR singlehandedly beat all the higher ranked teams SUI, RCF, SWE and DEN, but lost to USA and CAN, KOR still would not qualify.
Last edited by curlingclips on 12-13-21 at 10:54PM
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12-13-21 10:04PM |
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oliviertoisel
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2021
Location:
Posts: 587 |
quote:
Originally posted by curlingclips
Eh, it's not quite that simple. Let's take a look at the 3-way tie at 2021 World Women's for example.
USA, CAN and KOR were tied at 7W-6L, and there are only 2 playoff spots. USA and CAN beat KOR, so KOR is eliminated on head-to-head.
KOR actually beat SWE, which at 10W-3L is higher ranked. This fact gave KOR no advantage. KOR would've been better off losing to higher ranked SWE and instead beating lower ranked USA or CAN, because that would've given them a playoff spot (either via head-to-head or via DSC, of which KOR was the best amongst the 3).
In an alternate universe where USA, CAN and KOR were tied at 7W-6L, and KOR singlehandedly beat all the higher ranked teams SUI, RCF, SWE and DEN, but lost to USA and CAN, KOR still would not qualify.
To be honest I'm not quite sure what this debate is about. My post was that they seemed strong but hadn't faced any perceived tough teams yet (and still haven't beaten any) so could still falter. When I'd posted they were 3-1, with one "low" team left and 3 top teams left (depending how we count Germany). If their success was based solely on facing bad teams and they'd dropped the "low" game and gone 0-3 on the remainder they'd likely go home at 4-5, so my point was just not to be over-confident.
Now it seems to be a discussion about whether beating a group of low ranked or high ranked teams is better. Your example is an example of one option, but that's it: just one scenario. We can do that all day it doesn't make it meaningful. I can find any number of tournaments where the top team matches determined a major playoff change such as who ends up 2nd and in the semi or page playoff. We just saw at the Canadian Men's Trials that Gushue lost to a low team and beat all the high teams and it was an enormous difference in his favour.
Or here's a realistic scenario right now: Latvia beats Germany. Then suddenly looses to the other 2 top teams and that is the difference between second and fourth and 1 chance to win and go to the Olympic or 2 chances. If they drop more, end up in some ties, etc. then it'll matter if they beat those teams. But the lesson isn't "beat worse teams" it is "beat teams you're even with". And if Latvia wins one more game it is far more likely they end up in a tie with the playoff teams, not to get into the playoffs. We won't know which wins are most helpful here until the week shakes out. But if Korea and Latvia end up tied with 2 losses I think Latvia would gladly trade their Czech win for one over Korea. And the inverse would be true if they lose to Germany and the Germany win a tie. Anyway, my point was Latvia seems impressive but the data isn't super helpful. We'll find out how far it goes over the next 2 days.
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12-13-21 10:57PM |
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FleuryFan
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Dec 2018
Location:
Posts: 53 |
Women's Prediction
Looking at the standings right now, I think Germany still have a chance of nabbing the fourth spot if they can channel their play from the Euros a few weeks ago.
Based on who they still have to play, I think Korea, Japan and Great Britain are grabbing the top three spots. If KOR beat JPN in their head to head, I think they are first overall and get the first spot to Beijing (KOR should beat CZE and EST). If JPN win this game though, then I think they would get the first spot as they should beat EST, LAT and TUR in their other three remaining round robin games. GB still have to play EST, GER, ITA and LAT but even if they surprisingly drop one of those games I still think they claim 3rd at 5-3.
The fourth seed is trickier but I believe it will come down to GER and LAT. Germany currently 1-3 with EST, GB, ITA and LAT still to play. Assuming Jentsch loses to Muirhead (15-0 Muirhead in the head-to-head series in their career) and they beat the three others, GER would be 4-4 at the end of the week. Latvia currently sit 4-1 but now take on GER, GB and JPN. If Latvia pulls off an upset in anyone of these games, they should get the fourth spot but if they lose all three, they would be in a tie for fourth with Germany, also at 4-4. Based off head-to-head, Germany would get the fourth spot if they beat Latvia. The only other team that I see potentially getting to 4-4 would be Turkey if they beat ITA and CZE, but they also lost to both GER and LAT so they would miss the playoffs either way based on head-to-head...
Just some predictions / guesses on my part though, can't wait to see how the rest of the week plays out!
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12-13-21 11:27PM |
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oliviertoisel
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2021
Location:
Posts: 587 |
Good analysis, I think I agree. Latvia's performance this morning makes it seem pretty likely their impressive record was mostly luck of the draw. I do not like their chances against a much steadier Muirhead. Meanwhile Germany continued to look soft. I'd say it's fairly likely the winner of LAT-GER is the fourth team. I also agree the winner of KOR-JPN is likely to get the auto-berth. I like SCO for winning the first playoff game and then it's anyone's guess but I'd favour both KOR and SCO over Latvia. GER depends which team shows up.
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12-14-21 10:36AM |
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curlingclips
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Oct 2019
Location:
Posts: 1523 |
Instead of Emira Abbes, Mia Höhne was vice for SCO vs GER (i.e. sweeps 4 rocks per end instead of 6).
https://worldcurling.org/events/oqe...n=941&game=4088
That is not a mistake. You can see it for yourself at the tail end of JPN vs LAT game, which ended early.
Apparently she was also vice in GER vs TUR.
https://worldcurling.org/events/oqe...n=939&game=4076
I'm not sure what this means for GER.
I haven't been paying that much attention, but I think she has also switched sides when sweeping. I think she's now always on the thrower's left side, whereas before she would do both. Could point to a possible injury.
Last edited by curlingclips on 12-15-21 at 03:08AM
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12-15-21 02:57AM |
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Dangermouse
Swing Artist
Registered: Feb 2014
Location:
Posts: 245 |
After this morning's Draw 7 results:
Japan 5-1 (EST D8, TUR D9)
Korea 5-2 (CZE D9)
Scotland/GB 4-2 (LAT D8, ITA D9)
Latvia 4-3 (SCO D8)
Italy 3-3 (GER D8, SCO D9)
Estonia 2-4 (JPN D8, GER D9)
Germany 2-4 (ITA D8, EST D9)
Turkey 2-4 (CZE D8, JPN D9)
Czech Republic 1-5 (TUR D8, KOR D9)
Japan, with a 5-1 record and favoured in their last two games, are the clear favourites to claim the automatic spot now. If they do slip up against Estonia or Turkey, it sets up for a possible 3-way tie at 6-2 between Japan, Korea and Scotland, each of whom has a 1-1 H2H record. In that case Scotland are currently ahead on DSC but that could all change of course.
Scotland and Korea have the inside track to book their places in the 2 vs 3 game.
Latvia can clinch at least 4th place with a win against Scotland tonight, but it gets blown wide open if they lose to finish 4-4. Italy are the only other team that can still get to 5-3, but they'd need to beat tricky Germany and Scotland to do that. Even if Italy do beat Germany, it's likely not enough because Latvia beat Italy H2H. So assuming Scotland do beat Latvia tonight, you'd still back the Latvians to take fourth place unless Germany win out.
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12-15-21 05:57AM |
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Observer
Swing Artist
Registered: Apr 2016
Location: River Falls, WI, USA
Posts: 445 |
Thanks Dangermouse. I was going to post something like that, but you did it faster and more thoroughly. Saves me time.
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12-15-21 08:17AM |
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oliviertoisel
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2021
Location:
Posts: 587 |
I'd take Germany to win out right now and claim 4th but that'll go out the window if they lose to Italy tonight. Huge game. I think Latvia ends 4-4 after losing to Scotland and Italy 3-5 after losses to Germany and Scotland. Germany threads the needle and gets by at 4-4 and a H2H over Latvia. But all teams are showing weakness so it can honestly go any which way.
Then men's side is fascinating with the Czechs (who played a great game against JPN) able to lock up a playoff spot with another win. Unfortunately they face Italy today and Denmark tomorrow: a top team and a team in competition for fourth. I'd like to see them do it, would be a great story. Otherwise NOR cruising t the auto-berth and Retornaz looking good for the first playoff.
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12-15-21 08:17AM |
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Bulls Eye
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Mar 2017
Location:
Posts: 80 |
I find the women's event more interesting as I think the qualifiers will be medal contenders. GB, Japan and Korea teams are all proven medalists at world and Olympic levels (in most cases multiple times).
I don't think this is the case on the men's side. Only Nergaard has medaled and I don't think the qualifiers from this event can match the teams already qualified.
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12-15-21 02:05PM |
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oliviertoisel
Drawmaster
Registered: Feb 2021
Location:
Posts: 587 |
Germany is done. It all comes down to whether Italy can beat Scotland. Otherwise it's basically JPN>SCO>KOR>LAT. In that scenario I favour the top three teams pretty strongly.
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12-15-21 04:08PM |
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nelski
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Oct 2004
Location: Twin Snowbanks
Posts: 2068 |
I realize China has the host berths. Has anyone evaluated their play? Are they in the calibre of these teams (men/women)?
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Lots of major youth (<21) events. Nice for Murdoch... and us :-D.
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12-15-21 04:14PM |
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decade
Super Rockchucker
Registered: Jan 2011
Location:
Posts: 1962 |
quote:
Originally posted by nelski
I realize China has the host berths. Has anyone evaluated their play? Are they in the calibre of these teams (men/women)?
China's women are ranked about 50th on the world ranking and the men 75 ish. They haven't been overly strong since Bingyu Wang one the worlds although she had a great career.
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12-15-21 04:30PM |
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Bulls Eye
Harvey Hacksmasher
Registered: Mar 2017
Location:
Posts: 80 |
quote:
Originally posted by oliviertoisel
Germany is done. It all comes down to whether Italy can beat Scotland. Otherwise it's basically JPN>SCO>KOR>LAT. In that scenario I favour the top three teams pretty strongly.
Actually, I think Korea may be in second as they hold the H2H over Scotland. Does anyone know what advantage (if any) second holds over third? Do they get hammer in the first, choice of rocks, etc?
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12-15-21 04:49PM |
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